- The Marlins are -140 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: MAS2 | BSFL
The Washington Nationals (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-140) on Saturday, April 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 11-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 9-18 ATS.
Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 2-0, 1.50 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 1-0, 3.28 ERA
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -105 | +115 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -115 | -140 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games (+22.90 Units / 114% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.35 Units / 79% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 67% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games (+12.40 Units / 103% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.40 Units / 41% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 15-10 against the Run Line (+3.48 Units / 10.85% ROI).
- 11-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 15.32% ROI
- 9-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -27.21% ROI
- 15-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.03 Units / 18.21% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 9-18 against the Run Line (-13.71 Units / -38.34% ROI).
- 6-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.25 Units / -51.78% ROI
- 13-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -7.54% ROI
- 14-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Avisail Garcia (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Avisail Garcia (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 11.0 innings pitched — Ranger Suarez has the longest active streak at 25.1.
Mitchell Parker has not walked any of the 43 batters that he has faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OPS of just .358 (43 PA’s) — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .671 — 98th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OBP of just .163 (43 PA’s) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .311 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (80/446) against Edward Cabrera since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 32 of 216 batters (15%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 70 of 481 batters (15%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 32 of 184 batters (17%) versus the top of the order since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 68-44 (.607) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Nationals are just 22-40 (.355) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Nationals are just 31-49 (.388) after a win since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 23-79 (.225) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are just 57-15 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Marlins are 42-19 (.689) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Marlins are just 108-29 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .118 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Nationals hitters have just 2,577 strikeouts in 13,009 PA’s (20%) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals are just 3-12 (.200) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Nationals are batting just .085 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .159.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .516 (406 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .244 (358 PA’s) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (118.7 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 114.2).
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 472.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 442.6
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 11% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.26 (130.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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