- The Marlins are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: MAS2 | BSFL
The Washington Nationals (+120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-145) on Sunday, April 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 12-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 9-19 ATS.
Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 0-3, 6.59 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers 2-2, 3.12 ERA
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -115 | +120 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -105 | -145 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Senzel has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+24.00 Units / 600% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+11.60 Units / 83% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.00 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+11.40 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+9.20 Units / 72% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 16-10 against the Run Line (+4.48 Units / 13.25% ROI).
- 12-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 19.28% ROI
- 10-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -22.65% ROI
- 15-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.93 Units / 13.68% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 9-19 against the Run Line (-14.71 Units / -40.02% ROI).
- 6-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.65 Units / -53.97% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -4.04% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -3.59% ROI
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Avisail Garcia (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Riley Adams (WAS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Emmanuel Rivera (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Avisail Garcia (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Avisail Garcia (MIA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Emmanuel Rivera (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .318 (178-for-560) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (5/55) against Patrick Corbin on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .315 (96-for-305) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .291 (154-for-530) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has allowed an OBP of .489 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (27/103) against Ryan Weathers on sliders this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has a strike rate of just 46% (47/103) on sliders this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has walked 9 of 83 right-handed batters (11%) this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — ninth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 22-40 (.355) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Nationals are just 132-183 (.419) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 43-178 (.195) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 108-29 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins are 36-15 (.706) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Marlins are 98-17 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Marlins are 17-69 (.198) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting just .085 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .160.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .920 (1,329 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.095.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .252 (425 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 13% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .249 (379 PA’s) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Marlins pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 119 of 1,109 batters (11%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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