The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-165) on Wednesday, March 6, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Jupiter, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 5-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 4-4 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +140 |
| Marlins | -165 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jeter Downs has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.80 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 away games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Nationals are 4-4 against the Run Line (-1.16 Units / -11.43% ROI).
- 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.73 Units / 40.9% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.68 Units / 7.69% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.46 Units / -16.63% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 4-4 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -2.03% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -30.58% ROI
- 1-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -75.69% ROI
- 7-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 70.18% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .293 (210-for-717) against Patrick Corbin in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had a strikeout rate of just 16% (124/790) in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had a strike rate of just 57% (438/762) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had a strikeout rate of just 14% (26/189) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
40% of Jesus Luzardo’s called strikeouts were elevated in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo had an average fastball velocity of 96.8 MPH in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.0 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 50% (181/361) against Jesus Luzardo on sliders in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 50% (181/361) against Jesus Luzardo on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 21-36 (.368) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 39-64 (.379) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 63-43 (.594) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Nationals are just 37-72 (.339) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 21-73 (.223) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are 93-13 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins are 25-121 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Marlins were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 809 times in 4,217 PA’s (19%) against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals batted just .293 in hitter’s counts in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .343.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins grounded into 158 double plays in the 2023 season — most in MLB.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents batted .273 against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 20% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Lower Leg, Out
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, Out
- Joey Meneses (Washington Nationals): Knee, Out
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Dominic Smith (Washington Nationals): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
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