- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Mets TV Channel: MASN | SNY | MLBN
The Washington Nationals (+120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-145) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Nationals are 42-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 44-47 ATS.
Nationals vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 6-7, 3.81 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 3-0, 3.59 ERA
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +120 |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -115 | -145 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+15.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 85 games (+9.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 85 games (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 85 games (+4.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 82 games (+16.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+7.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 52-41 against the Run Line (+5.83 Units / 4.84% ROI).
- 42-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 4.6% ROI
- 43-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -6.29% ROI
- 45-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.72 Units / -2.65% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 44-47 against the Run Line (-5.9 Units / -5.01% ROI).
- 46-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -1.38% ROI
- 47-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 3.99% ROI
- 39-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.95 Units / -12.33% ROI
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Harrison Bader (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Trey Lipscomb (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ildemaro Vargas (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -150 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (85/262) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (64/198) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (75/223) against MacKenzie Gore on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (230/416) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has allowed an OBP of .327 (346 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .529 (9 GB hits out of 17 GBs) against David Peterson with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (57/93) against David Peterson when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (48/154) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 165 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 53-204 (.206) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Nationals are just 50-94 (.347) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Nationals are just 44-68 (.393) after a win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 6-35 (.146) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 31-11 (.738) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Mets are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Mets are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .944 (1,746 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.085.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.77 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .267 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters are slugging .441 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Mets hitters have just 2,268 strikeouts in 10,946 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are batting .247 with two outs since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 79 of 819 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 350 of 3,499 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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