- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Mets TV Channel: MASN | SNY
The Washington Nationals (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Nationals are 42-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 42-47 ATS.
Nationals vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 7-6, 2.82 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 3-5, 4.17 ERA
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -185 | O 8 +100 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -120 | -135 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+15.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 83 games (+12.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 83 games (+9.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+8.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 83 games (+4.20 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 80 games (+14.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 61% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 52-39 against the Run Line (+8.63 Units / 7.34% ROI).
- 42-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 6.78% ROI
- 42-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -6.32% ROI
- 44-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.62 Units / -2.61% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 42-47 against the Run Line (-8.4 Units / -7.26% ROI).
- 44-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -3.39% ROI
- 46-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.05 Units / 4.18% ROI
- 38-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -12.51% ROI
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .323 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .047 (2-for-43) against Jake Irvin — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .240 — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has allowed an OBP of just .205 (190 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters are hitting just .000 (0-for-21) against Jake Irvin — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (696/1,180) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 50% (258/519) when ahead in the count this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of just 11% (7 SO in 66 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (241/419) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 106-123 (.463) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Nationals are just 44-68 (.393) after a win since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Nationals are just 35-62 (.361) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Nationals are just 54-71 (.432) at home since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 84-18 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Mets are just 14-55 (.203) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mets are just 33-35 (.485) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Mets are just 92-17 (.844) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 2,128 strikeouts in 10,674 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging .959 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .551.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .780 (982 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Mets are batting .267 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Mets are batting .264 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 4.67 (1872.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 56 of 514 batters (11%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 78 of 801 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 218 of 2,213 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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