- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Nationals / Phillies TV Channel: MASN | NSPA | MLBN
The Washington Nationals (+150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Thursday, May 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 13-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 16-14 ATS.
Nationals vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Brad Lord 0-3, 4.86 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 1-2, 2.74 ERA
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | O 10 -115 | +150 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +115 | U 10 -105 | -185 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 60.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+13.90 Units / 154% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.50 Units / 68% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+13.90 Units / 347% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games at home (+11.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games (+4.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 23 games (+3.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 24 games (+2.15 Units / 8% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in their last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.60 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 15-16 against the Run Line (-2.7 Units / -7.07% ROI).
- 13-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -8.45% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 2.65% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -10.35% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 16-14 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -2.07% ROI).
- 17-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.21% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -4.26% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -4.53% ROI
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brad Lord (WAS) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brad Lord has thrown fastballs 77% of the time (229/299) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (22/128) against Brad Lord this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 0 Percentile.
77% of Brad Lord’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (19/55) against Brad Lord this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker allowed a slugging percentage of .590 (200 Total Bases / 339 ABs) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .404 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 17% (107/611) against Taijuan Walker in 2023 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker had an ERA of 7.10 (83.2 IP)in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.97 — 0 Percentile.
Taijuan Walker allowed an OPS of .977 (382 PA’s) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .709 — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are 2-17 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 81-97 (.455) at home since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 50-85 (.370) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Phillies (fifth best runs scored) today.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 3-9 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Phillies are 59-11 (.843) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Phillies are 65-31 (.677) at home since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Phillies are 96-20 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .651 (2,129 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Nationals hitters struck out just 809 times in 4,217 PA’s (19%) against RHP in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies hitters are slugging just .390 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Phillies are batting just .244 in hitter’s counts this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Phillies batted .270 against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 2.32 runs per game (72/31) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.31.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers walked 444 of 6,050 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Phillies pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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