- The Phillies are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Phillies Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Phillies TV Channel: MASN | NSPA
The Washington Nationals (+200) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-250) on Friday, May 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 20-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 25-20 ATS.
Nationals vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 2-3, 3.55 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 4-3, 2.52 ERA
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +100 | O 7.5 -120 | +200 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -120 | U 7.5 +100 | -250 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 68.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+22.90 Units / 286% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+11.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 23 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 36 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+14.20 Units / 237% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+12.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+11.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.10 Units / 42% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 34 games (+11.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 34 games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 23 away games (+3.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 28 games (+21.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 30 games (+16.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 28 games (+15.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 29 games (+14.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 26-16 against the Run Line (+7.88 Units / 14.47% ROI).
- 20-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 19.72% ROI
- 17-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.05 Units / -17.62% ROI
- 23-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.08 Units / 8.73% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 25-20 against the Run Line (+6.35 Units / 11.54% ROI).
- 31-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.85 Units / 14.82% ROI
- 23-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 2.23% ROI
- 20-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.5 Units / -11.06% ROI
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has walked 1 of 83 right-handed batters (1%) this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin’s K:BB ratio is 18.0 (18/1) against right-handed batters this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 3.0 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (10/70) against Jake Irvin with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (139/642) against Jake Irvin since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has struck out 38% (41/109) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .074 (9-for-122) against Zack Wheeler with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .166 — 98th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has struck out 38% (41/109) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .130 (13-for-100) against Zack Wheeler this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 23-42 (.354) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 139-191 (.421) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 45-185 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Nationals are just 44-84 (.344) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 14-9 (.609) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Phillies are 23-21 (.523) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Phillies are 96-8 (.923) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Phillies are 112-74 (.602) at home since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting just .099 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .122 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .393 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Phillies are batting .465 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 71% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .346 (625 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .354 (3,215 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .104 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% versus the bottom of the order this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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