Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 18, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals vs Phillies Over / Under today: 7 Runs
  • Nationals / Phillies TV Channel: MASN | NSPA

The Washington Nationals (+145) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-175) on Saturday, May 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Nationals are 20-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 26-20 ATS.

Nationals vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 2-4, 3.38 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 2-3, 3.24 ERA

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -145O 7 +100+145
Phillies -1.5 +120U 7 -120-175

Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+21.90 Units / 243% ROI)
  • Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.65 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+11.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.30 Units / 49% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 37 games (+16.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+13.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+10.80 Units / 98% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 games (+10.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 35 games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 away games (+2.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 29 games (+20.60 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 31 games (+17.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 29 games (+16.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 30 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.45 Units / 39% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 26-17 against the Run Line (+6.83 Units / 12.3% ROI).

  • 20-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 16.99% ROI
  • 17-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -19.73% ROI
  • 24-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.08 Units / 10.65% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 26-20 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 13.08% ROI).

  • 32-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.85 Units / 15.67% ROI
  • 23-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.2% ROI
  • 21-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.5 Units / -8.87% ROI

6 of MacKenzie Gore’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (33/89) against MacKenzie Gore on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (40/109) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 42% (36/86) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed an OBP of .383 (154 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — first Percentile.

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed an OBP of .408 (71 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (77/129) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Cristopher Sanchez has walked 3 of 18 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 23-42 (.354) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 44-84 (.344) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.

The Nationals are just 35-55 (.389) after a win since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.

The Nationals are just 15-25 (.375) after a home win since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are 14-9 (.609) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.

The Phillies are 97-8 (.924) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.

The Phillies are 9-76 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Phillies are 12-136 (.081) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Nationals are just 3-13 (.188) against the run line (-52.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Nationals hitters have just 1,881 strikeouts in 9,388 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have just 1,057 strikeouts in 5,337 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have 370 extra-base hits out of 1,172 total hits (just 32%) against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.

Phillies hitters are slugging .428 against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .747 (1,146 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .696.

Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .347 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .353 (3,223 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .139 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
  • Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
  • Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
  • Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
  • Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
  • Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
  • Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
  • Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
  • Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
  • Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.