- The Reds are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals / Reds TV Channel: MAS2 | BSOH
The Washington Nationals (+130) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-155) on Thursday, March 28, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
Nationals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | O 9.5 -120 | +130 |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 +100 | -155 |
Nationals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s game with 55.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Nationals vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Stolen Bases Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in his last away game (+1.95 Units / 195% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in his last away game (+1.95 Units / 195% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.80 Units / 180% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+1.30 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Will Benson has hit the RBIs Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Martini has hit the Hits Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Singles Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 away games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games at home (+10.93 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
28 of Josiah Gray’s 95 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
28 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has an average spin rate of 1959.4 RPM on sliders since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2397.6 — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray allowed an OBP of .383 (196 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — first Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.1 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (82 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 89.8
Frankie Montas has averaged 88.5 MPH on sliders since the 2021 season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — 94th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Frankie Montas vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season is 406.8 feet — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 398.1
Frankie Montas’ highest spin rate on fastballs since the 2021 season is 2659.0 RPM — 8th fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 2974.6
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are just 120-170 (.414) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 21-36 (.368) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 63-43 (.594) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Nationals are just 37-72 (.339) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 48-38 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 17-24 (.415) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Reds are just 38-18 (.679) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Reds hitters chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds scored first in just 44% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents batted .273 against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers walked 613 of 6,310 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers walked 140 of 1,443 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Reds pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Reds pitchers won 38% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Reds vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, Out
- Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): Foot, Day-To-Day
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Oblique, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lower Leg, Day-To-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, Day-To-Day
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Abdomen, Out
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Lower Leg, Out
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, Out
- Joey Meneses (Washington Nationals): Knee, Out
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Dominic Smith (Washington Nationals): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
Bet now on Nationals vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
