- The Reds are -170 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | MAS2
The Washington Nationals (+145) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-175) on Friday, May 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Nationals are 14-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 18-14 ATS.
Nationals vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 3-1, 2.63 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 3-2, 2.68 ERA
Nationals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 +100 | +145 |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -120 | -175 |
Nationals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB game with 60.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+12.90 Units / 129% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+8.75 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Trevino has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+13.40 Units / 335% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 games (+3.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 16-16 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -4.3% ROI).
- 14-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -3.73% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.57% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -7.2% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 18-14 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 2.65% ROI).
- 17-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 5.14% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -7.14% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -1.69% ROI
Reds vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Reds vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Reds vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -155 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has walked 33% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 13% (20 SO in 155 PAs) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has struck out just 12% (12/103) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 13% (20 SO in 155 PAs) this season — 2nd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has thrown 132 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
54% of Hunter Greene’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has a strike rate of 71% (395/555) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed an OBP of just .231 (143 PA’s) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are 2-17 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 50-85 (.370) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Reds (16th best runs scored) today.
The Nationals were just 27-44 (.380) after a win in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 9-7 (.562) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .038.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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