- The Orioles are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Orioles vs Guardians Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Orioles / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | MASN | ESPN+
The Baltimore Orioles (-110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-110) on Thursday, August 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Orioles are 65-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 53-54 ATS.
Orioles vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 9-6, 3.46 ERA
Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -115 | -110 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 -105 | -110 |
Orioles vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 18 of his last 49 games (+35.25 Units / 72% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+19.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 15 games (+16.90 Units / 101% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+12.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.50 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games at home (+57.50 Units / 319% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+15.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+14.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+13.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+10.75 Units / 15% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 100 games (+14.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 94 games (+14.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+13.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 away games (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 107 games (+15.87 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 62 of their last 107 games (+12.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 93 games (+8.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 58-51 against the Run Line (+14.8 Units / 11.71% ROI).
- 65-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 2.67% ROI
- 59-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +16.55 Units / 14% ROI
- 39-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -26.3 Units / -22.02% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 53-54 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 1.42% ROI).
- 65-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.87 Units / 11.36% ROI
- 50-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -5.37% ROI
- 51-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -3.29% ROI
Guardians vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Guardians vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
| Trevor Rogers (BAL) | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Albert Suarez has located his pitches away 57% of the time (180/318) when behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Albert Suarez has a strikeout rate of just 18% (29 SO in 162 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (12/52) against Albert Suarez on inside fastballs this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 40% — fifth Percentile.
The average home run distance against Albert Suarez this season is 415.2 feet — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 397.7
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last seven games dating back to June 22nd — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents are hitting just .192 against Ben Lively vs left-handed batters this season — eighth best among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP– 91st Percentile. Left handed batters hit .296 (55-for-186) against him last season — 10th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 10th Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .623 (96 Total Bases / 154 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .433 — third Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .623 (96 Total Bases / 154 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 172 total IP; League Avg: .431 — first Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Orioles are 57-45 (.559) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Orioles are 32-24 (.571) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Orioles are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 43-19 (.694) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Guardians are 19-17 (.528) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Guardians are 33-15 (.688) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Guardians are 58-33 (.637) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Guardians are 60-38 (.612) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .277 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have just 2,104 strikeouts in 11,499 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since last season (386/10,043) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .187 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Guardians have allowed 0.76 runs per game (81/107) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Guardians vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
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