- The Orioles are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Orioles vs Guardians Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Orioles / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | MASN
The Baltimore Orioles (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Friday, August 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Orioles are 65-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 54-54 ATS.
Orioles vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer 4-7, 4.15 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 3-9, 5.73 ERA
Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +145 | O 9 -105 | -115 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | U 9 -115 | -105 |
Orioles vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 19 of his last 50 games (+38.50 Units / 77% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+21.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 16 games (+17.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+13.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.65 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 games at home (+56.50 Units / 297% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+15.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+14.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+13.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 40 games (+11.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+14.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 101 games (+12.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 95 games (+12.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 away games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 away games (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 108 games (+16.87 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 63 of their last 108 games (+13.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+10.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 94 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 58-52 against the Run Line (+12.7 Units / 9.89% ROI).
- 65-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 1.96% ROI
- 60-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +17.55 Units / 14.71% ROI
- 39-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -27.4 Units / -22.73% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 54-54 against the Run Line (+3.65 Units / 2.79% ROI).
- 66-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.87 Units / 11.98% ROI
- 51-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.35 Units / -4.48% ROI
- 51-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -4.19% ROI
Guardians vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Guardians vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Guardians vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco (CLE) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Dean Kremer (BAL) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has walked 3 of 18 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 3rd highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Dean Kremer has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (181/358) of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed an OBP of .444 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 2nd highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .303 — 15th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 123 of Dean Kremer’s 463 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 27%) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 34% — fifth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .319 (96-for-301) against Carlos Carrasco when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .407 (74-for-182) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 172 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .464 (104-for-224) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 172 total IP; League Avg: .339 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .867 (85 Total Bases / 98 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .433 — 0 Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Orioles are 32-24 (.571) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Orioles are 57-45 (.559) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Orioles are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 53-31 (.631) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Guardians are 19-17 (.528) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Guardians are 34-15 (.694) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Guardians are 54-1 (.982) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Guardians are 20-10 (.667) after a home win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .794 (1,318 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Orioles hitters are slugging .446 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Orioles are 79-45 (.637) against the run line (21.0% ROI) after a road win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Orioles hitters are slugging .456 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,109 strikeouts in 11,518 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Guardians are batting just .278 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since last season (386/10,084) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .205 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Orioles have won 46% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 261 of 3,882 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .185 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Guardians have allowed 0.76 runs per game (82/108) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
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