- The Red Sox are -130 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Orioles / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Thursday, May 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Orioles are 16-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 25-25 ATS.
Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 1-3, 5.27 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 1-1, 7.09 ERA
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -200 | O 8 +100 | +110 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -120 | -130 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Orioles vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+13.30 Units / 166% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.85 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+18.10 Units / 302% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.48 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.99 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.94 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 46 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.26 Units / 18% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 15-32 against the Run Line (-19.76 Units / -32.55% ROI).
- 16-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.5 Units / -39.78% ROI
- 23-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.83 Units / -1.58% ROI
- 22-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.37 Units / -6.33% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 25-25 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 1.33% ROI).
- 25-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.86 Units / -12.58% ROI
- 24-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.37 Units / -7.76% ROI
- 26-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.09% ROI
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Heston Kjerstad (BAL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jackson Holliday (BAL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ramon Laureano (BAL) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cade Povich has allowed a slugging percentage of .440 (117 Total Bases / 266 ABs) when ahead in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: .296 — 0 Percentile.
Cade Povich has a strikeout rate of 43% (9 SO in 21 PAs) over the past seven days (1 game) — 2nd best among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 21% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 40% (22/55) against Cade Povich on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Cade Povich has allowed a slugging percentage of .471 (41 Total Bases / 87 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .291 — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .713 (258 Total Bases / 362 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .568 — first Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .608 (169 Total Bases / 278 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .435 — first Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has thrown his changeup for a strike 78% (73/94) of the time this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 59% — 100th Percentile.
65 of Lucas Giolito’s 204 strikeouts (32%) came on changeups in 2023 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are just 2-13 (.133) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Orioles are just 8-15 (.348) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .562.
The Orioles are just 4-28 (.125) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Orioles are just 16-32 (.333) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 15-147 (.093) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 6-76 (.073) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .555 (490 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Orioles hitters are slugging .758 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Orioles hitters have struck out in 26% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .375 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .748 (10,478 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .179 against Orioles pitchers this month (18 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.47 (418.0 IP) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Orioles vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
