- The Orioles are -110 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Orioles vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Orioles / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN | FS1
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Saturday, May 24, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Orioles are 16-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 26-25 ATS.
Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Zach Eflin 3-2, 5.21 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Hunter Dobbins 2-1, 3.70 ERA
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | O 9.5 -115 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | U 9.5 -105 | -125 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+12.30 Units / 137% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games at home (+17.45 Units / 218% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+13.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+12.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 away games (+9.99 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.28 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+0.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 47 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.26 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 15-33 against the Run Line (-21.66 Units / -34.6% ROI).
- 16-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.5 Units / -40.78% ROI
- 24-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.17 Units / 0.32% ROI
- 22-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.57 Units / -8.39% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 26-25 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 3.86% ROI).
- 26-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.86 Units / -10.97% ROI
- 25-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.37 Units / -5.88% ROI
- 26-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -2.01% ROI
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ramon Laureano (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ramon Laureano (BAL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ramon Laureano (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin (BAL) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
| Hunter Dobbins (BOS) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has walked 2% of right-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.
Zach Eflin walked 7 of 252 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 2% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (24 Total Bases / 24 ABs) over the past seven days (1 game) — highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .367 — second Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .390 (16-for-41) against Hunter Dobbins this month (4 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — second Percentile.
Opponents batting at the bottom of the order are hitting .444 (12-for-27) against Hunter Dobbins this month (4 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .214 — second Percentile.
Hunter Dobbins has not walked any of the 37 batters that they have faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Dobbins has allowed a slugging percentage of just .125 (2 Total Bases / 16 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .398 — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are just 2-14 (.125) after a win this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Orioles are just 4-28 (.125) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Orioles are just 16-33 (.327) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Orioles are just 15-26 (.366) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 6-76 (.073) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox are just 43-160 (.212) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Red Sox are just 4-163 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging just .280 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .376.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Orioles are just 16-33 (.327) against the run line (-30.8% ROI) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .276 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 8.83 (53.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.77 (426.0 IP) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.32 (208.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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