- The Orioles are +105 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Orioles vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Orioles / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Sunday, May 25, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Orioles are 17-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 27-26 ATS.
Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer 3-5, 5.57 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 4-1, 4.00 ERA
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +160 | O 9.5 -115 | +105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -210 | U 9.5 -105 | -125 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+11.30 Units / 113% ROI)
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+22.70 Units / 284% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+11.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.35 Units / 41% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games (+14.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.64 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+8.18 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.88 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+1.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+7.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 49 games (+7.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+5.86 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.15 Units / 24% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 16-34 against the Run Line (-21.66 Units / -33.17% ROI).
- 17-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.45 Units / -39.32% ROI
- 25-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.07 Units / 0.13% ROI
- 23-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.67 Units / -8.24% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 27-26 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 3.7% ROI).
- 27-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.21 Units / -11.08% ROI
- 26-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.47 Units / -5.83% ROI
- 27-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -2.11% ROI
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer (BAL) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Walker Buehler (BOS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .312 (39-for-125) against Dean Kremer this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — third Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed an OPS of .909 (132 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .684 — fifth Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .568 (71 Total Bases / 125 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 — third Percentile.
Dean Kremer has a strikeout rate of just 14% (13 SO in 90 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 15% (5/34) against Walker Buehler on breaking pitches this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 13% (6/45) against Walker Buehler on non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Walker Buehler has allowed an OBP of .314 (255 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: .242 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 53% (32/60) against Walker Buehler on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are just 2-14 (.125) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Orioles are just 8-15 (.348) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .563.
The Orioles are just 5-28 (.152) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Orioles are just 16-27 (.372) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 6-76 (.073) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are 148-11 (.925) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 35% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .556 (513 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .277 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Orioles are batting just .201 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 25% of it’s PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.32 (208.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.27 (116.1 IP) over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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