- The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Astros Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Friday, April 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Padres are 15-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 8-10 ATS.
Padres vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Kyle Hart 2-0, 5.56 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 1-1, 3.00 ERA
Padres vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -115 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -105 | -145 |
Padres vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+9.85 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+15.40 Units / 385% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 101 of their last 167 games (+20.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 167 games (+9.00 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.00 Units / 24% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 161 games (+20.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 82 of their last 161 games (+4.45 Units / 2% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 14-5 against the Run Line (+9.5 Units / 38.46% ROI).
- 15-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.3 Units / 43.21% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -13.94% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 4.75% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 8-10 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -6.7% ROI).
- 8-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.05 Units / -18.24% ROI
- 7-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -15.21% ROI
- 9-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 6.91% ROI
Astros vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Astros vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hart (SD) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -110 |
| Ryan Gusto (HOU) | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -185 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (5/23) against Kyle Hart this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (9/33) against Kyle Hart this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (5/38) against Kyle Hart on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Kyle Hart allowed an OPS of just .158 (19 PA’s) in his last start — 2nd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .653 — 98th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Gusto has struck out just 12% (2/17) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 14th lowest among among 107 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 14th Percentile.
Ryan Gusto has a strike rate of 72% (131/183) this season — 8th highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — 92nd Percentile.
Ryan Gusto has struck out 46% (12/26) of right-handed batters he faced this month (4 games) — 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Ryan Gusto has struck out 43% (13/30) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 8th best among AL Relievers; League Avg: 26% — 92nd Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Padres are 15-4 (.789) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 7-1 (.875) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .620.
The Padres are 67-39 (.632) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Astros (10th best runs scored) today.
The Padres are 86-5 (.945) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .903.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Astros are just 0-8 (.000) after a win this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have just 324 strikeouts in 1,881 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have just 877 strikeouts in 4,932 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .201 with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .483 (58 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.68 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have an OPS of just .724 (122 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.035.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have allowed 2.68 runs per game (51/19) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 2.56 (169.0 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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