- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Padres vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN1 | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-125) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+105) on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Padres are 27-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 28-18 ATS.
Padres vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 1-2, 4.63 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 3-2, 3.16 ERA
Padres vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +130 | O 8 +100 | -125 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -120 | +105 |
Padres vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+13.30 Units / 148% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+9.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 9 away games (+9.35 Units / 84% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bo Bichette has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+15.40 Units / 192% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 68% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+5.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 43 games (+4.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.10 Units / 20% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.86 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.64 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-19 against the Run Line (+4.25 Units / 7.1% ROI).
- 27-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 5.08% ROI
- 19-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -8 Units / -16.44% ROI
- 25-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 7.02% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 28-18 against the Run Line (+7.95 Units / 12.32% ROI).
- 22-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.56 Units / -4.8% ROI
- 22-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -5.86% ROI
- 23-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -2.06% ROI
Blue Jays vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Blue Jays vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 4.5 -118 | 4.5 -110 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -118 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 64% of the time (107/167) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of .407 (81 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .294 — second Percentile.
Dylan Cease threw his slider 47% of the time (1,500/3,188) in the 2024 season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has struck out 49% (17/35) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .163 against Chris Bassitt with RISP this season — 10th best among qualified SPs– 88th Percentile. Opponents batted .282 (46-for-163) against him with RISP last season — 10th worst among qualified SPs– 17th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt walked 31 of 279 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has walked 3% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an OBP of .341 (977 PA’s) since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — fourth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Padres are 3-15 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 76-43 (.639) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Padres are 45-19 (.703) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Blue Jays are just 13-4 (.765) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Blue Jays are just 1-8 (.111) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Padres (10th best runs allowed) today.
The Blue Jays are just 17-3 (.850) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Blue Jays are just 82-9 (.901) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres have scored first in 100% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .238 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
30% of Blue Jays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .376 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .473 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH since the 2023 season (8,932 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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