- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Braves Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Friday, May 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Padres are 22-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 21-19 ATS.
Padres vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 1-5, 5.50 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 3-1, 3.55 ERA
Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -110 | O 8 -105 | +180 |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | U 8 -125 | -225 |
Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 68.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 away games (+24.50 Units / 153% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+14.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.55 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+16.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+13.70 Units / 77% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 games at home (+13.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.15 Units / 42% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+11.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 away games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 away games (+4.85 Units / 20% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 26 games (+20.75 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+6.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 23-23 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 2.67% ROI).
- 22-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -13.63% ROI
- 24-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 2.38% ROI
- 21-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -10.61% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 21-19 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 6.62% ROI).
- 26-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 5.75% ROI
- 12-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.2 Units / -37.07% ROI
- 26-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.9 Units / 29.05% ROI
Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried (ATL) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has allowed an OPS of 1.249 (69 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .732 — 0 Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed a slugging percentage of .770 (47 Total Bases / 61 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .413 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 28% (37/130) against Matt Waldron on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 47% — third Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed a slugging percentage of .568 (42 Total Bases / 74 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .388 — second Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 83.2 MPH (87 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.0 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.2 MPH this season (87 balls in play) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Right-handed batters are hitting just .126 (16-for-127) against Max Fried this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .029 (1-for-34) against Max Fried — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are just 6-18 (.250) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Padres are just 1-88 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 18-33 (.353) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Padres are just 4-82 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 29-37 (.439) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Braves are 34-54 (.386) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Braves are 17-58 (.227) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Braves are 45-93 (.326) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .285 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Padres are batting just .197 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters have drawn 1,006 walks in 10,088 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .344 (790 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .466 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters are slugging .484 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Braves hitters are slugging .478 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters are slugging .580 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (4,994 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have allowed a run 42% of the time after an opposing score this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.9 MPH (930 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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