- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Braves TV Channel: FOX
The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-120) on Saturday, May 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Padres are 23-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 21-20 ATS.
Padres vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 3-1, 2.44 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 1-1, 4.95 ERA
Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 +100 | +100 |
| Braves | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -120 | -120 |
Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 away games (+23.50 Units / 138% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+15.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+11.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.55 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+17.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+14.70 Units / 73% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 18 games at home (+14.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+14.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 21 away games (+12.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+6.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 away games (+6.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.05 Units / 23% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 27 games (+21.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games (+5.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+3.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 24-23 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 4.37% ROI).
- 23-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -10.38% ROI
- 24-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.19% ROI
- 22-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -8.46% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 21-20 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 4.09% ROI).
- 26-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 2.66% ROI
- 12-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.3 Units / -38.62% ROI
- 27-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.9 Units / 30.55% ROI
Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder (ATL) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
| Yu Darvish (SD) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 48% of the time (275/570) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Yu Darvish over the last 14 days — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .245 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .200 against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP– 90th Percentile. Opponents batted .455 (30-for-66) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — fourth worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– third Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OPS of just .334 (43 PA’s) — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .679 — 99th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has averaged 89.8 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — fourth Percentile.
Bryce Elder has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (200/383) of left-handed hitters since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% (150/752) against Bryce Elder since the 2022 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has struck out just 14% (75/540) of left-handed batters he faced since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are just 6-18 (.250) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Padres are just 1-88 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are just 7-140 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are just 4-82 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Braves are 49-47 (.510) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 34-54 (.386) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Braves are 29-38 (.433) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .288 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres hitters have just 837 strikeouts in 4,020 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have 44 extra-base hits out of 85 total hits (52%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .580 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Braves hitters are slugging .483 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Braves hitters are slugging .502 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Braves hitters are slugging .530 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,009 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.8 MPH (962 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.8 MPH this season (962 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% against Braves pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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