- The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-125) on Monday, May 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Padres are 24-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 21-21 ATS.
Padres vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 0-2, 6.32 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 6-1, 2.56 ERA
Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 +100 | +105 |
| Braves | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -120 | -125 |
Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB game with 67.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 away games (+33.00 Units / 183% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 44 games (+16.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+12.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+16.50 Units / 78% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+16.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+16.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 19 games at home (+15.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+15.15 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 22 away games (+13.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 away games (+7.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 away games (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 28 games (+20.55 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+2.70 Units / 6% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 25-23 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 5.92% ROI).
- 24-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -8.61% ROI
- 25-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 2.1% ROI
- 22-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -10.53% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 21-21 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 1.9% ROI).
- 26-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 1.01% ROI
- 13-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.3 Units / -35.59% ROI
- 27-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.7 Units / 27.19% ROI
Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -160 | 6.5 +125 |
| Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .214 (206 PAs) this season — second best among qualified SPs– 99th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .110 (11-for-100) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
8 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .141 (26-for-185) against Dylan Cease this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
10 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
10 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .172 (20 Total Bases / 116 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — 98th Percentile.
Chris Sale has walked 1 of 72 batters (1%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are just 6-18 (.250) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are just 7-140 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are just 4-149 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 18-33 (.353) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Braves are 34-55 (.382) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Braves are 17-60 (.221) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Braves are 186-41 (.819) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .290 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are batting just .211 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have drawn 1,010 walks in 10,128 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .576 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Braves hitters are slugging .502 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Braves hitters are slugging .474 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Braves are batting .274 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 18%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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