- The Braves are -170 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Braves TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Friday, May 23, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA, GA.
This season, the Padres are 27-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 21-27 ATS.
Padres vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 5-2, 2.88 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 2-3, 3.65 ERA
Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -102 | +150 |
| Braves | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -118 | -185 |
Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+16.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+11.40 Units / 163% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+13.10 Units / 262% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Chris Sale has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.35 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.35 Units / 95% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+4.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+2.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 46 games (+0.75 Units / 1% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+6.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.05 Units / 42% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-22 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 1.18% ROI).
- 27-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.07% ROI
- 21-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -13.67% ROI
- 26-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 4.36% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 21-27 against the Run Line (-6.02 Units / -10.49% ROI).
- 24-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.23 Units / -15.22% ROI
- 19-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -17.81% ROI
- 26-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.3 Units / 9.93% ROI
Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +105 |
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .132 (106 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 98th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated sliders33% of the time (50/154) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .059 (3-for-51) against Nick Pivetta’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .231 (106 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .482 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
14 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
14 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among among NL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
46 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since last season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
32 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2024 season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Padres are 16-7 (.696) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
The Padres were 67-6 (.918) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Padres are 4-15 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are just 4-11 (.267) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Padres (10th best runs allowed) today.
The Braves are 23-128 (.152) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Braves were 24-16 (.600) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Phillies (12th best runs allowed) today.
The Braves are 171-13 (.929) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres have scored first in 100% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters slugged .751 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 43% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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