- The Padres are -105 favorites vs the Braves
- Padres vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Braves TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-105) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-115) on Saturday, May 24, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta, GA, GA.
This season, the Padres are 28-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 21-28 ATS.
Padres vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 4-2, 2.57 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Grant Holmes 2-3, 4.01 ERA
Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +154 | O 9 -110 | -105 |
| Braves | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -110 | -115 |
Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+20.70 Units / 207% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+16.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 games (+20.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+12.10 Units / 202% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Nick Allen has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.30 Units / 55% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 92% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+5.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 47 games (+3.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 47 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+6.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+4.60 Units / 15% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 27-22 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 2.7% ROI).
- 28-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 2.2% ROI
- 21-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -15.46% ROI
- 27-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 6.1% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 21-28 against the Run Line (-7.02 Units / -12.03% ROI).
- 24-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.03 Units / -17.24% ROI
- 19-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -19.44% ROI
- 27-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.3 Units / 11.56% ROI
Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Michael King (SD) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -150 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed an OPS of just .397 (90 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .666 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .125 (10-for-80) against Michael King when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .125 (10-for-80) against Michael King when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .232 — 97th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of just .175 (14 Total Bases / 80 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .366 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .104 (8-for-77) against Grant Holmes when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .232 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .104 (8-for-77) against Grant Holmes when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .706 (12 GB hits out of 17 GBs) against Grant Holmes with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .258 — first Percentile.
Grant Holmes has walked 14% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Padres are 30-26 (.536) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Braves (first best runs allowed) today.
The Padres are 95-6 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Padres are 83-10 (.892) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are just 4-12 (.250) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Padres (10th best runs allowed) today.
The Braves are 76-61 (.555) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Padres (eighth best runs scored) today.
The Braves are 4-19 (.174) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Braves are 127-89 (.588) after a win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of 64% with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 59%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since the 2023 season (9,038 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 42% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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