- The Braves are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Braves Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Braves TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+118) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-140) on Sunday, May 25, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Padres are 28-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 22-28 ATS.
Padres vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 1-3, 4.53 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 3-3, 3.53 ERA
Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -110 | +118 |
| Braves | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -110 | -140 |
Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+18.30 Units / 261% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+14.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 games (+20.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+15.90 Units / 227% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 8 games (+8.35 Units / 88% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games (+2.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+0.50 Units / 1% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.05 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+7.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+5.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 27-23 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.38% ROI).
- 28-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 0.72% ROI
- 21-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -17.17% ROI
- 28-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 7.76% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 22-28 against the Run Line (-5.72 Units / -9.63% ROI).
- 25-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.03 Units / -15.61% ROI
- 19-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -21.01% ROI
- 28-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.3 Units / 13.13% ROI
Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +110 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 51% of the time (1,921/3,738) against right-handed batters since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .163 (41-for-252) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 11% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (368/1,031) against Dylan Cease since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed a SLG of just .291 vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 88th Percentile but .457 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 16th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has a in-zone of 58% (227/393) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 97th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has a strike rate of 70% (277/393) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has walked 3% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 93rd Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 60-47 (.561) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Padres are 19-13 (.594) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves were 35-31 (.530) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Phillies (fifth best runs scored) today.
The Braves were 24-16 (.600) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Phillies (12th best runs allowed) today.
The Braves are 4-19 (.174) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Braves are 218-157 (.581) since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres have scored first in 100% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Braves batted .288 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Braves hitters slugged .509 at home in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH since the 2023 season (9,065 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 2.36 (217.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 42% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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