- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Brewers
- Padres vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Brewers TV Channel: PDTV | BSWI
The San Diego Padres (-125) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+105) on Tuesday, April 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Padres are 10-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 9-6 ATS.
Padres vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 1-1, 2.16 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley 0-0, 2.46 ERA
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -110 | -125 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -110 | +105 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eguy Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Eguy Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+6.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Strikeouts Over in 8 of his last 12 away games (+4.15 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 80% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.35 Units / 62% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+7.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+6.70 Units / 69% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 146 games (+15.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 10-9 against the Run Line (+2.87 Units / 12.82% ROI).
- 10-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.94 Units / 4.07% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.47 Units / 6.97% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -13.18% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 9-6 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 14.39% ROI).
- 10-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 31.64% ROI
- 11-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.75 Units / 40.66% ROI
- 4-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -48.04% ROI
Brewers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Brewers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Brewers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley (MIL) | 2.5 -155 | 2.5 +120 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -130 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
5 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
5 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .212 (66 PAs) this season — tied for seventh best among qualified SPs– 93rd Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has allowed an OPS of just .158 (33 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .665 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 53% of the time (304/572) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has thrown his cutter 42% of the time (225/537) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total CUT; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Wade Miley located his fastball inside 53% of the time (242/460) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 14.1 innings pitched — Ronel Blanco has the longest active streak at 22.1.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Padres are just 16-31 (.340) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Padres are just 80-13 (.860) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 28-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Brewers were 24-0 (1.000) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers were 23-10 (.697) after a home loss in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 947 walks in 9,364 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 24 walks in 148 PA’s (16%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters drew 494 walks in 4,481 PA’s (11%) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of .808 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 145 extra-base hits out of 551 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .846 (379 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Brewers are batting .306 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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