- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Cubs
- Padres vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+105) on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Padres are 19-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 23-14 ATS.
Padres vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 4-2, 2.55 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski 2-0, 0.54 ERA
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -110 | -125 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -110 | +105 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 away games (+25.50 Units / 170% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+13.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+18.95 Units / 211% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+11.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+10.35 Units / 148% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 72% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+6.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 20-19 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 6.44% ROI).
- 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -6.75% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.5 Units / 5.87% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -14.35% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 23-14 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 12.46% ROI).
- 22-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units / 18.12% ROI
- 16-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -17.73% ROI
- 21-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 8.51% ROI
Cubs vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Cubs vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Cubs vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski (CHC) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -160 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .212 (160 PAs) this season — tied for second best among qualified SPs– 99th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has allowed an OPS of just .280 (86 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .141 (85 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .161 (62 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hayden Wesneski has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 81% (34/42) of opposing batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 99th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 15.2 innings pitched — Jhoan Duran has the longest active streak at 25.1.
Hayden Wesneski has allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (10 Total Bases / 60 ABs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .390 — 100th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has allowed an OPS of just .357 (63 PA’s) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .696 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are just 5-17 (.227) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Padres are just 7-136 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are just 17-32 (.347) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Padres are just 88-14 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are 38-21 (.644) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Cubs are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 38-39 (.494) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Cubs are just 16-28 (.364) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are batting .288 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Padres hitters have 39 extra-base hits out of 73 total hits (53%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The Padres are batting .186 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .156.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .493 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .373.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,985 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .848 (388 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .349 (668 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run 46% of the time after an opposing score this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 17 double plays in 287 opportunities (6%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 42% of their games since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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