- The Red Sox are -155 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Padres / Red Sox TV Channel: ATV+
The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Friday, June 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Padres are 44-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 37-43 ATS.
Padres vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 2-4, 5.14 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 4-4, 4.06 ERA
Padres vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -115 | +125 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 -105 | -155 |
Padres vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 away games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 away games (+8.65 Units / 77% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.30 Units / 58% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+6.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 43-42 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 3.66% ROI).
- 44-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -4.92% ROI
- 45-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.4 Units / 2.58% ROI
- 39-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.75 Units / -11.42% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 37-43 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -11.34% ROI).
- 43-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.95 Units / 3.05% ROI
- 37-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -5.98% ROI
- 39-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -1.64% ROI
Red Sox vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -800 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OPS of 1.234 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (5 games) — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .651 — fourth Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OBP of .538 (52 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .321 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .478 (22-for-46) against Randy Vasquez this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .345 (68-for-197) against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .808 (21 Total Bases / 26 ABs) against right-handed batters — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .388 — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .772 (217 Total Bases / 281 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: .574 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .423 (11-for-26) against Nick Pivetta — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .230 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .292 (7-for-24) against Nick Pivetta with two-strikes — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .156 — fifth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Padres are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .057.
The Padres are 34-4 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Padres are just 4-164 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are 96-17 (.850) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Red Sox are just 27-37 (.422) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Red Sox are just 2-106 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are 94-8 (.922) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Red Sox are just 42-70 (.375) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 184 strikeouts in 1,047 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .380 (393 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Padres are batting .319 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 243 strikeouts in 868 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have 611 strikeouts in 2,446 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .259 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .247 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 30 of 219 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (25 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,975 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 45 of 716 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 207 of 2,982 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have 138 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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