- The Red Sox are -155 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Padres / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Saturday, June 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Padres are 45-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 37-44 ATS.
Padres vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 5-5, 3.76 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 7-5, 2.17 ERA
Padres vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -115 | +125 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 -105 | -155 |
Padres vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 40 away games (+13.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.65 Units / 64% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.65 Units / 62% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+5.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 44-42 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 4.56% ROI).
- 45-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -3.68% ROI
- 46-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.4 Units / 3.62% ROI
- 39-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.95 Units / -12.53% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 37-44 against the Run Line (-13.2 Units / -12.16% ROI).
- 43-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 1.42% ROI
- 38-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -4.79% ROI
- 39-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -2.96% ROI
Red Sox vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -800 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.9 MPH on non-fastballs since last season (224 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 87.4
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.7 MPH this season (205 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.4 MPH since last season (468 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 89.2
Michael King has struck out 30% (61/200) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 85th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .311 (222 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .483 — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .219 (30 Total Bases / 137 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .386 — 100th Percentile.
12 of Tanner Houck’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (28/41) against Tanner Houck this month (4 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Padres are just 4-164 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are 97-17 (.851) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Padres are just 1-103 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Red Sox are just 27-38 (.415) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Red Sox are just 4-173 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 50-167 (.230) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Red Sox are 21-5 (.808) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .278 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .384 (395 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Padres hitters have just 184 strikeouts in 1,047 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 552 strikeouts in 2,746 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 246 strikeouts in 880 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .295 on changeups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Red Sox are batting .258 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Red Sox hitters have 614 strikeouts in 2,458 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have walked 30 of 228 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (26 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers have walked 16 of 115 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 46 of 725 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 211 of 3,024 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.26 (348.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 165 times this season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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