- The Yankees are -185 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Yankees Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Yankees TV Channel: AMZP | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+150) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-185) on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx, NY, NY.
This season, the Padres are 23-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 18-18 ATS.
Padres vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 1-2, 5.68 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Max Fried 6-0, 1.01 ERA
Padres vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -150 | O 8 -118 | +150 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -102 | -185 |
Padres vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 60.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Dylan Cease has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 64% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 83% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+16.40 Units / 164% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 38% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.37 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.05 Units / 13% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.37 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 36 games (+5.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+4.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games at home (+4.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 21-14 against the Run Line (+5.6 Units / 11.88% ROI).
- 23-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.75 Units / 24.38% ROI
- 14-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -19.52% ROI
- 20-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.2 Units / 10.62% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 18-18 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 4.91% ROI).
- 20-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -2.88% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -9.27% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.32 Units / 0.8% ROI
Yankees vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Yankees vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Yankees vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Yankees vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Max Fried (NYY) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -175 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease threw breaking pitches 60% of the time (966/1,609) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 11% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 51% of the time (1,824/3,581) against right-handed batters since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (2,103/3,821) since last season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (140/227) against Max Fried in two-strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
6 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 2nd most among among AL Starters; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 59% (286/483) against Max Fried in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 62% (113/183) against Max Fried in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Padres are 4-9 (.308) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres are 141-21 (.870) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Padres are 110-87 (.558) after a win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are just 8-130 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Yankees are 58-16 (.784) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .635.
The Yankees are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .122.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .470 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of its PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 9% of batters since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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