- The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Phillies vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Brewers TV Channel: NSPA | BSWI | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-120) on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Phillies are 91-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 79-72 ATS.
Phillies vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 12-8, 3.65 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 11-8, 3.77 ERA
Phillies vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +170 | O 7.5 -105 | +100 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -210 | U 7.5 -115 | -120 |
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+12.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+12.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 46 games (+28.40 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+21.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+16.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+19.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 92 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 away games (+6.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 147 games (+11.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 151 games (+11.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 61 games at home (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 74-77 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -3.02% ROI).
- 91-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 1.59% ROI
- 70-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.1 Units / -7.26% ROI
- 74-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -2.05% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 79-72 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 1.53% ROI).
- 87-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.65 Units / 6.02% ROI
- 78-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.6 Units / 5.81% ROI
- 63-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -23 Units / -13.76% ROI
Brewers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Brewers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (523/1,610) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 189 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (189/546) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 44 of 835 batters (5%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has 116 three-pitch strikeouts since the 2022 season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (552/945) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 61% (858/1,404) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fifth Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 57% (166/291) this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed an OPS of 1.455 (28 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .650 — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Phillies are 12-113 (.096) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies are 79-12 (.868) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 36-80 (.310) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Brewers are 51-50 (.505) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Brewers are 179-134 (.572) since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 44-37 (.543) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .348 (1,791 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .786 (3,660 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .791 (1,791 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .306 with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Brewers hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,608 of their 5,774 plate appearances (28%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Brewers are batting just .238 against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (907.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.70 (2791.1 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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