- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Cubs
- Phillies vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Cubs TV Channel: NSPA | MARQ | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+105) on Wednesday, July 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Phillies are 56-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 40-46 ATS.
Phillies vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 9-4, 2.75 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 7-2, 3.09 ERA
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -115 | -125 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -105 | +105 |
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 90% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 70 games (+24.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 68 games (+23.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 67 games (+19.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 69 games (+15.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 68 games (+14.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games (+16.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 74 games (+10.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 41 games at home (+0.45 Units / 1% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 46-39 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 5.94% ROI).
- 56-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +12 Units / 8.4% ROI
- 37-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -11.34% ROI
- 43-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 2.36% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 40-46 against the Run Line (-15.9 Units / -13.24% ROI).
- 39-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -9.25% ROI
- 37-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -14.18% ROI
- 46-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.4 Units / 5.7% ROI
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga (CHC) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -155 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OPS of just .456 (193 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .656 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (22-for-219) against Zack Wheeler with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 98th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (1,380/3,247) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .163 (22-for-135) against Zack Wheeler when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shota Imanaga has allowed an OPS of just .506 (135 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .677 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (87/249) against Shota Imanaga this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 12th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has walked 3 of 131 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has walked 14 of 348 batters (4%) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are 49-6 (.891) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
The Phillies are 4-22 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 9-17 (.346) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 47-47 (.500) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Cubs are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 17-36 (.321) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Cubs are just 3-14 (.176) after a road win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .310 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .744 (10,835 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .330 (2,169 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Phillies have scored first in 76% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have 10 strikeouts in 18 PA’s (56%) against LHP over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have 25 strikeouts in 70 PA’s (36%) against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Cubs are batting just .212 with two outs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
The Cubs are batting .164 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 15 of 424 batters (4%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .126 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 39 double plays in 627 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cubs vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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