- The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Diamondbacks TV Channel: NSPA | DBTV
The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) on Saturday, August 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Phillies are 69-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 59-58 ATS.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 11-5, 3.57 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 9-5, 3.76 ERA
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -110 | -110 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -110 | -110 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 45 games (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 away games (+12.75 Units / 75% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+11.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 22 games (+42.00 Units / 191% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+17.95 Units / 82% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+16.25 Units / 70% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 36 games (+15.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 36 games (+13.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 60 of their last 101 games (+15.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 99 games (+13.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 99 games (+10.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 58 of their last 98 games (+10.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 97 games (+6.20 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 61 games (+17.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 60 games (+16.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+4.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 59-57 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 0.53% ROI).
- 69-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.03% ROI
- 53-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.4 Units / -8.89% ROI
- 58-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.39% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 59-58 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -3.53% ROI).
- 64-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 4.93% ROI
- 63-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.35 Units / 4.89% ROI
- 51-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.05 Units / -14.12% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Bell (ARI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake McCarthy (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 4.5 -185 | 4.5 +135 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (340/980) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .140 (13-for-93) against Aaron Nola’s elevated fastball this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .204 — 92nd Percentile.
Hitters have chased 191 of Aaron Nola’s 403 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 47%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (469/1,479) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .208 (144-for-692) against Zac Gallen when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 84th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of just .584 (748 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .669 — 91st Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .321 (222 Total Bases / 692 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (23/41) against Zac Gallen over the last 14 days — 2nd highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are 6-2 (.750) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Phillies are 17-11 (.607) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Phillies are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 36-145 (.199) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are 15-6 (.714) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Diamondbacks are just 168-28 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Diamondbacks are 31-21 (.596) after a loss this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Diamondbacks are 31-6 (.838) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .759.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .254 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Phillies are batting .270 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters are slugging .451 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Phillies hitters are slugging .446 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Diamondbacks are batting .278 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .775 (1,427 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
26% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .237 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 14 days — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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