- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Guardians
- Phillies vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Guardians TV Channel: ESPN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-185) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+150) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Phillies are 23-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 20-19 ATS.
Phillies vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 3-1, 3.36 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 2-3, 5.31 ERA
Phillies vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | O 7.5 -120 | -185 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -110 | U 7.5 +100 | +150 |
Phillies vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 59.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+14.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.70 Units / 64% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+10.50 Units / 105% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+8.50 Units / 106% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+11.60 Units / 290% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.75 Units / 97% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.65 Units / 95% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 27 games (+5.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 20-19 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -1.15% ROI).
- 23-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 2.85% ROI
- 18-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.05 Units / -9.39% ROI
- 20-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.94% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 20-19 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -5% ROI).
- 23-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 17.16% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 6.46% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -13.66% ROI
Guardians vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Guardians vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Guardians vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +120 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted just .161 (56-for-348) against Zack Wheeler in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler allowed an OBP of just .201 (368 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
6 of Zack Wheeler’s 15 breaking pitch strikeouts (40%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (79/161) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has walked 12% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Luis Ortiz threw fastballs down 49% of the time (388/787) in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz had a strikeout rate of just 7% (6/80) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Ortiz allowed an OBP of .428 (152 PA’s) versus the top of the order in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .328 — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Phillies are 13-133 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies were 28-22 (.560) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 101-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Guardians are 166-3 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .783 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Phillies have scored first in 79% of their home games since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .438 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since the 2023 season (489/13,462) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Guardians pitchers this month (9 game{NumGameSuffix}) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
More MLB Reading:
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