Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 10

min read
Miami Marlins' Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2) breaks his bat during the first inning of the team's baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Friday, May 12, 2023, in Miami. Chisholm grounded out on the at-bat.
(AP Photo/Michael Laughlin)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 10, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Phillies are -210 favorites vs the Marlins
  • Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
  • Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: WCAU | BSFL

The Philadelphia Phillies (-210) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+170) on Friday, May 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.

This season, the Phillies are 26-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 11-28 ATS.

Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 6-0, 1.78 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 0-5, 6.09 ERA

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -125O 7.5 -115-210
Marlins +1.5 +105U 7.5 -105+170

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 65.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 29 games (+14.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+9.90 Units / 247% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 34 games (+9.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+9.75 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+7.75 Units / 16% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 24 games (+17.70 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+12.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+10.25 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games at home (+2.99 Units / 4% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 20-18 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 6.24% ROI).

  • 26-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 14.81% ROI
  • 17-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -9.36% ROI
  • 19-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.24% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 11-28 against the Run Line (-22.91 Units / -45.67% ROI).

  • 10-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.2 Units / -45.86% ROI
  • 22-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 8.54% ROI
  • 17-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -7 Units / -16.26% ROI

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Jake Burger (MIA) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 0.5 +525 0.5 -750
Bryce Harper (PHI) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Tim Anderson (MIA) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Bryce Harper (PHI) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Edmundo Sosa (PHI) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150

Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm (PHI) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 0.5 +155 0.5 -200
Bryce Harper (PHI) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 0.5 +175 0.5 -225
Edmundo Sosa (PHI) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ranger Suarez (PHI) 5.5 +105 5.5 -135
Trevor Rogers (MIA) 5.5 +120 5.5 -155

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH this season (98 balls in play) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.9

Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of 84% (89/106) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 69% — 100th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 82.3 MPH (98 batted balls) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.9 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .150 (9-for-60) against Ranger Suarez when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 91st Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Rogers has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 47% (47/101) of the time this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 47% (47/101) on sliders this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (53 Total Bases / 89 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .382 — 0 Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .515 (33 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .328 — second Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 99-55 (.643) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .588.

The Phillies are 53-37 (.589) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .490.

The Phillies are just 15-21 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 168-11 (.939) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .906.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 59-15 (.797) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.

The Marlins are just 38-34 (.528) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.

The Marlins are just 25-61 (.291) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.

The Marlins are just 14-46 (.233) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Phillies hitters are slugging .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .756 (5,301 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Phillies hitters are slugging .427 against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .385.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .332 (1,438 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Marlins hitters have chased 46% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .522 (453 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .677.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .125 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.39 (114.0 IP) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.

The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 472.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 446.7

Marlins pitchers have walked 160 of 1,534 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
  • Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
  • Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
  • Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
  • Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
  • Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
  • Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
  • Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
  • Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.