- The Phillies are -210 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: WCAU | BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-210) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+170) on Friday, May 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 26-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 11-28 ATS.
Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 6-0, 1.78 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 0-5, 6.09 ERA
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -125 | O 7.5 -115 | -210 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -105 | +170 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 65.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 29 games (+14.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+9.90 Units / 247% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 34 games (+9.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+9.75 Units / 64% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+7.75 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 24 games (+17.70 Units / 74% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+12.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+10.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games at home (+2.99 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 20-18 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 6.24% ROI).
- 26-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 14.81% ROI
- 17-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -9.36% ROI
- 19-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.24% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 11-28 against the Run Line (-22.91 Units / -45.67% ROI).
- 10-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.2 Units / -45.86% ROI
- 22-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 8.54% ROI
- 17-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -7 Units / -16.26% ROI
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH this season (98 balls in play) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of 84% (89/106) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 69% — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 82.3 MPH (98 batted balls) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.9 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (9-for-60) against Ranger Suarez when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 91st Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 47% (47/101) of the time this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 47% (47/101) on sliders this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (53 Total Bases / 89 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .382 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .515 (33 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .328 — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 99-55 (.643) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Phillies are 53-37 (.589) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Phillies are just 15-21 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 168-11 (.939) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 59-15 (.797) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Marlins are just 38-34 (.528) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Marlins are just 25-61 (.291) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Marlins are just 14-46 (.233) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .756 (5,301 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Phillies hitters are slugging .427 against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .332 (1,438 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 46% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .522 (453 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .677.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .125 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.39 (114.0 IP) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 472.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 446.7
Marlins pitchers have walked 160 of 1,534 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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