- The Phillies are -145 favorites vs the Mets
- Phillies vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Mets TV Channel: WCAU | SNY | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-145) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+120) on Tuesday, May 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Phillies are 29-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 19-21 ATS.
Phillies vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 4-2, 3.73 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Butto 1-2, 3.00 ERA
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +115 | O 8 -115 | -145 |
| Mets | +1.5 -140 | U 8 -105 | +120 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 60.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 33 games (+13.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+13.00 Units / 130% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 104% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 39 games (+8.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 7 games at home (+8.00 Units / 114% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.25 Units / 30% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 23-19 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 9.61% ROI).
- 29-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 14.94% ROI
- 21-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.22% ROI
- 19-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.3 Units / -9.28% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 19-21 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -3.85% ROI).
- 19-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -5.38% ROI
- 18-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.2 Units / -9.94% ROI
- 20-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 1.09% ROI
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Butto (NYM) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (257/717) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 31% (203 SO in 647 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 71% (275/387) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (41/72) against Aaron Nola this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 91st Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Butto has a strike rate of just 50% (68/136) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Jose Butto has a strike rate of just 49% (89/181) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 12% (2/16) against Jose Butto on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Butto has a strike rate of just 55% (224/410) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 23-21 (.523) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Phillies are 123-81 (.603) after a win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Phillies are 12-135 (.082) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 54-16 (.771) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are just 3-86 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are 96-24 (.800) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Mets are 167-4 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mets are just 8-79 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .506 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Phillies hitters are slugging .439 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies hitters have 619 strikeouts in 2,443 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .236 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Mets hitters are slugging just .328 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .556 (818 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Mets are batting .269 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .121 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 179 of 1,545 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 59 of 468 batters (13%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 15 of 110 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 7 of 46 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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