- The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Phillies vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Phillies / Pirates TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT
The Philadelphia Phillies (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Phillies are 62-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 54-44 ATS.
Phillies vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Tyler Phillips 1-0, 4.50 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales 1-0, 2.46 ERA
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | O 9 +100 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | U 9 -120 | +105 |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.75 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 83 games (+21.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 81 games (+21.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 80 games (+16.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 81 games (+12.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 82 games (+10.30 Units / 7% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 54 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games (+11.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 54 games (+9.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 51-47 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 2.59% ROI).
- 62-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.85 Units / 4.21% ROI
- 44-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -9.55% ROI
- 49-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.47% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 54-44 against the Run Line (+6.86 Units / 5.38% ROI).
- 50-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 1.4% ROI
- 45-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.65 Units / -7.95% ROI
- 49-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.48 Units / 0.45% ROI
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips (PHI) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Marco Gonzales (PIT) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Phillips has not walked any of the 38 batters that he has faced this month (2 games) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Phillips has allowed an OBP of just .200 (15 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 91st Percentile.
Tyler Phillips has allowed an OPS of 1.115 (26 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (2 games) — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .730 — sixth Percentile.
Tyler Phillips has a strikeout rate of 32% (12 SO in 38 PAs) this month (2 games) — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 92nd Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 14% (152 SO in 1,087 PAs) since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has averaged 79.5 MPH on changeups since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 85.4 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has struck out just 13% (111/848) of right-handed batters he faced since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (123/734) against Marco Gonzales since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 53-6 (.898) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Phillies are 25-9 (.735) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Phillies are 15-10 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Pirates are 15-11 (.577) after a road loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Pirates are 60-13 (.822) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .312 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Phillies are batting .313 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Phillies are batting .290 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 64% at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .179 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 260 of 3,623 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have won 35% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 50% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,478 of 16,226 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Pirates pitchers this month (15 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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