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The Philadelphia Phillies () visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins () on Wednesday, July 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Phillies are 64-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 47-53 ATS.
Phillies vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 11-4, 3.57 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Steven Okert 3-1, 4.45 ERA
Phillies vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | O | ||
| Twins | U |
Phillies vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 59.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+16.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 17 games (+15.50 Units / 91% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 47 games (+15.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+13.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.20 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+14.00 Units / 280% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+12.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 58% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 86 games (+21.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 84 games (+20.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 83 games (+13.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 85 games (+11.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 84 games (+11.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 80 games (+6.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 53-48 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 3.73% ROI).
- 64-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 4.65% ROI
- 45-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.65 Units / -10.43% ROI
- 51-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 1.22% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 47-53 against the Run Line (-7.1 Units / -5.63% ROI).
- 55-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.1% ROI
- 50-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.32% ROI
- 46-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -8.51% ROI
Twins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Twins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola allowed a batting average of just .143 vs right-handed batters (tied for ninth best)– 90th Percentile and .368 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 11th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .238 (752 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .197 (140-for-712) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of .500 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 3rd highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .265 — seventh Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .588 (10-for-17) against Steven Okert’s elevated fastball this season — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: .194 — first Percentile.
34 of Steven Okert’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since the 2022 season — 2nd most among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
26 of Steven Okert’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since the 2022 season — tied for most among NL Relievers; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
8 of Steven Okert’s 21 breaking pitch strikeouts (38%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 99th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 54-7 (.885) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 12-2 (.857) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Phillies are 15-10 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Twins are 15-30 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Twins are 183-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 54-17 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .622.
The Twins are 10-5 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .309 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .741 (11,236 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Phillies are batting .308 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .277 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Twins have scored 1.88 runs per game (188/100) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.41.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,218 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Twins have scored 1.79 runs per game (470/262) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Phillies have won 47% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The Phillies have won 61% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 251 of 3,701 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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