- The Astros are -190 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+160) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Pirates are 54-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 54-52 ATS.
Pirates vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 4-7, 4.10 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 9-6, 4.04 ERA
Pirates vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | O 8 +100 | +160 |
| Astros | -1.5 +105 | U 8 -120 | -190 |
Pirates vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+13.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 29 games (+12.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+10.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+23.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 23 games at home (+22.50 Units / 98% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+15.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+14.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 67 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 95 games (+10.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 62 games (+7.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 48 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+13.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 58-48 against the Run Line (+7.11 Units / 5.15% ROI).
- 54-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.65% ROI
- 48-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.4 Units / -9.68% ROI
- 54-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.08 Units / 1.8% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 54-52 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 1.87% ROI).
- 55-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -6.51% ROI
- 43-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.4 Units / -19.29% ROI
- 60-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.7 Units / 10.82% ROI
Astros vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Astros vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Astros vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (32/219) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (34/101) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (501/1,121) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 171 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (13/47) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of .376 (189 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .408 (80-for-196) against Hunter Brown in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .319 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (98/162) against Hunter Brown on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 171 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .299 (50-for-167) against Hunter Brown when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are 16-12 (.571) after a road loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Pirates are 27-5 (.844) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .759.
The Pirates are just 5-29 (.147) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Astros are 113-32 (.779) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are 42-5 (.894) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Astros are just 3-8 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 13-46 (.220) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters have 193 strikeouts in 565 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .176 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Pirates hitters have 268 strikeouts in 1,090 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have just 847 strikeouts in 4,788 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,458/10,262 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have just 526 strikeouts in 2,938 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,509 of 16,528 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
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