Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Feb 26

MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-210) on Monday, February 26, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:07pm EST in Dunedin, FL.

Last season, the Pirates were 76-86 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays were 75-89 ATS.

Pirates vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Moneyline
Pirates+170
Blue Jays -210

Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Monday‘s matchup with 53.5% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Tyler Heineman has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Nathan Lukes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread last MLB season, the Pirates went 84-78 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -5.93% ROI).

  • 76-86 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.65 Units / 4.89% ROI
  • 87-70 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.15 Units / 5.7% ROI
  • 70-87 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.55 Units / -14.31% ROI

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread last MLB season, the Blue Jays went 75-89 against the Run Line (-17.55 Units / -8.6% ROI).

  • 89-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.6 Units / -6.13% ROI
  • 72-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.4 Units / -11.38% ROI
  • 85-72 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.5 Units / 3.03% ROI

Roansy Contreras had an ERA of 6.59 (68.1 IP)in the 2023 season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.28 — fifth Percentile.

43 of Roansy Contreras’ 55 strikeouts (78%) came on non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 95th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras threw his slider 44% of the time (503/1,141) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras walked 32 of 302 batters (11%) in the 2023 season — tied for 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — eighth Percentile.

Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents batted .255 (165-for-646) against Yusei Kikuchi in the 2023 season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 13th Percentile.

51% of Yusei Kikuchi’s non-fastball strikeouts were located inside in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Yusei Kikuchi had a strike rate of 71% (544/761) on sliders in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.

Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (138 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Pirates are just 56-80 (.412) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.

The Pirates were 34-7 (.829) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Blue Jays are 158-36 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Blue Jays are 68-103 (.398) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Blue Jays are 18-13 (.581) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

The Blue Jays were 34-52 (.395) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.

The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 42% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.

The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

Blue Jays hitters struck out just 268 times in 1,405 PA’s (19%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Blue Jays hitters had an OBP of .334 (3,202 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Blue Jays hitters had 107 extra-base hits out of 340 total hits (just 32%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0

Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after scoring a run on offense in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Blue Jays pitchers had an ERA of 3.90 (706.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.

Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Blue Jays pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
  • Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
  • Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
  • Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
  • JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.