The Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-210) on Monday, February 26, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:07pm EST in Dunedin, FL.
Last season, the Pirates were 76-86 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays were 75-89 ATS.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +170 |
| Blue Jays | -210 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Monday‘s matchup with 53.5% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tyler Heineman has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Pirates went 84-78 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -5.93% ROI).
- 76-86 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.65 Units / 4.89% ROI
- 87-70 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.15 Units / 5.7% ROI
- 70-87 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.55 Units / -14.31% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Blue Jays went 75-89 against the Run Line (-17.55 Units / -8.6% ROI).
- 89-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.6 Units / -6.13% ROI
- 72-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.4 Units / -11.38% ROI
- 85-72 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.5 Units / 3.03% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras had an ERA of 6.59 (68.1 IP)in the 2023 season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.28 — fifth Percentile.
43 of Roansy Contreras’ 55 strikeouts (78%) came on non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 95th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras threw his slider 44% of the time (503/1,141) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras walked 32 of 302 batters (11%) in the 2023 season — tied for 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — eighth Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .255 (165-for-646) against Yusei Kikuchi in the 2023 season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 13th Percentile.
51% of Yusei Kikuchi’s non-fastball strikeouts were located inside in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi had a strike rate of 71% (544/761) on sliders in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (138 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 56-80 (.412) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Pirates were 34-7 (.829) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 158-36 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays are 68-103 (.398) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Blue Jays are 18-13 (.581) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Blue Jays were 34-52 (.395) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 42% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Blue Jays hitters struck out just 268 times in 1,405 PA’s (19%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters had an OBP of .334 (3,202 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Blue Jays hitters had 107 extra-base hits out of 340 total hits (just 32%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after scoring a run on offense in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had an ERA of 3.90 (706.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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