- The Brewers are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Brewers TV Channel: BSWI | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Pirates are 43-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 47-44 ATS.
Pirates vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 8-2, 3.34 ERA
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 -115 | +135 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -105 | -165 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games at home (+16.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 46 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+8.20 Units / 12% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 28 games at home (+14.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+11.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 91 games (+10.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 87 games (+9.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 48-42 against the Run Line (+3.11 Units / 2.64% ROI).
- 43-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.05 Units / -5.76% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -8.12% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.83 Units / 0.84% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 47-44 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.08% ROI).
- 53-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.95 Units / 11.43% ROI
- 48-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.9 Units / 6.94% ROI
- 38-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.8 Units / -14.69% ROI
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Josh Palacios (PIT) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Josh Palacios (PIT) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea (MIL) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .535 (38 Total Bases / 71 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: .310 — first Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 52% of the time (242/467) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .398 (41-for-103) against Martin Perez versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .256 (84 Total Bases / 328 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (123/673) against Colin Rea this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 14% (22 SO in 153 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Colin Rea has struck out just 16% (35/217) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .288 (40-for-139) against Colin Rea when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — ninth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 86-119 (.420) on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Pirates are just 134-30 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Pirates are just 16-26 (.372) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Pirates are just 29-48 (.377) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 65-43 (.602) after a loss since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Brewers are 76-45 (.628) at home since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Brewers are 39-3 (.929) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Brewers are 28-21 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 185 strikeouts in 529 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .301 (4,774 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .336 (2,610 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Brewers hitters have 29 extra-base hits out of 108 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .288 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 2.97 (109.0 IP) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,451 of 15,928 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 51% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.78 (1142.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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