- The Diamondbacks are -175 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-175) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Pirates are 52-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 53-50 ATS.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 7-5, 3.65 ERA
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | O 8.5 -115 | +145 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -105 | -175 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+14.40 Units / 180% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 away games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.15 Units / 60% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Walks Under in 10 of his last 14 away games (+4.35 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+27.30 Units / 195% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+13.95 Units / 77% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 23 games (+12.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+9.25 Units / 58% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+13.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 91 games (+12.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 58 games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 58 games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games (+14.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 55-47 against the Run Line (+5.21 Units / 3.94% ROI).
- 52-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.67% ROI
- 45-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.25 Units / -11.69% ROI
- 53-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.48 Units / 4.03% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 53-50 against the Run Line (-3.5 Units / -2.52% ROI).
- 53-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.67% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 2.53% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.8 Units / -11.4% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz (PIT) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 2nd lowest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — eighth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters are hitting just .000 (0-for-19) against Luis Ortiz in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
The last hit on a Luis Ortiz changeup was August 23rd, 2023. Hitters are 0 for their last 19 in ABs ending on his changeup. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Luis Ortiz has not allowed a walk in his last 69 PAs against a LHH dating back to June 8th — Matt Strahm has the longest active streak at 121.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has walked 9 of 48 right-handed batters (19%) this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of .500 (48 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — first Percentile.
Zac Gallen has walked 5 of 36 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of .542 (24 PA’s) against right-handed batters in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .314 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are 15-11 (.577) after a road loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Pirates are just 78-109 (.417) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Pirates are just 139-30 (.822) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Pirates are 16-9 (.640) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 177-17 (.912) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are just 11-18 (.379) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Diamondbacks are just 160-27 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Diamondbacks are just 11-40 (.216) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 38 extra-base hits out of 147 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Pirates hitters have 64 strikeouts in 179 PA’s (36%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 422 strikeouts in 1,256 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .697 (410 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in 64% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
26% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .273 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,492 of 16,373 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (284.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed 99 home runs this season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Diamondbacks pitchers this month (19 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
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