- The Diamondbacks are -175 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-175) on Saturday, July 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Pirates are 52-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 53-51 ATS.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales 1-1, 2.70 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 4-6, 3.72 ERA
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | O 8 +100 | +145 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -120 | -175 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+13.40 Units / 149% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 15 games (+26.30 Units / 175% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+13.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+12.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+14.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 92 games (+13.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 59 games (+11.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+11.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games (+9.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 56-47 against the Run Line (+6.21 Units / 4.65% ROI).
- 52-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.17% ROI
- 45-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -12.57% ROI
- 54-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.48 Units / 4.88% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 53-51 against the Run Line (-4.5 Units / -3.22% ROI).
- 54-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.12% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.51% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.8 Units / -10.41% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Palacios (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Gonzales (PIT) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 12% (48 SO in 408 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has averaged 79.5 MPH on changeups since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 85.4 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has an average fastball velocity of just 88.7 MPH since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 17% (73 SO in 417 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (346/487) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of just .244 (21 Total Bases / 86 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 94th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OBP of just .230 (244 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 97th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed three-ball counts to 10% of batters they faced (25/244 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 17-27 (.386) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Pirates are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Pirates are 61-13 (.824) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 11-40 (.216) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
The Diamondbacks are just 177-17 (.912) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are 13-6 (.684) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Diamondbacks are 44-10 (.815) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 192 strikeouts in 561 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 64 strikeouts in 179 PA’s (36%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 1,221 strikeouts in 4,886 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates hitters have 422 strikeouts in 1,256 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have scored first in 64% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .273 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .697 (410 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,492 of 16,373 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have 167 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
The Pirates have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (284.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
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