- The Pirates are -110 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Pirates are 52-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 54-51 ATS.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 10-5, 3.38 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Yilber Diaz 1-1, 5.53 ERA
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -210 | O 8.5 -110 | +100 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -110 | -120 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Pirates vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+13.40 Units / 149% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 games (+25.70 Units / 107% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+15.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+14.55 Units / 73% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 37% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+12.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 60 games (+10.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 65 games (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+8.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 57 games (+11.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 48 games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 56-48 against the Run Line (+4.81 Units / 3.56% ROI).
- 52-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -0.99% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -11.59% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.38 Units / 3.86% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 54-51 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -2.38% ROI).
- 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 0.88% ROI
- 55-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.36% ROI
- 47-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -11.28% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Josh Palacios (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .500 (81 Total Bases / 162 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .290 (47-for-162) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .264 (176-for-667) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 12th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has walked 12 of 252 left-handed batters (5%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 91st Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yilber Diaz has a strikeout rate of just 11% (7 SO in 64 PAs) this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (17/107) against Yilber Diaz this month (3 games) — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.
Yilber Diaz has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 49% (22/45) of opposing batters this month (3 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
57% of Yilber Diaz’s strikeouts are looking this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are 16-10 (.615) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Pirates are 27-5 (.844) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .760.
The Pirates are just 45-60 (.429) after a home win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Pirates are just 139-30 (.822) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are 45-10 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Diamondbacks are just 179-17 (.913) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are just 162-27 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Diamondbacks are 4-42 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .055.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .496 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Pirates are batting just .236 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates hitters have 422 strikeouts in 1,257 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .128 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .310 (452 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Diamondbacks are batting .276 against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,267 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Pirates have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (284.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,500 of 16,450 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
Bet now on Pirates vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
