- The Guardians are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Guardians Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-155) on Friday, August 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Pirates are 62-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 66-68 ATS.
Pirates vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 6-7, 4.26 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 11-8, 3.63 ERA
Pirates vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -115 | +130 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -105 | -155 |
Pirates vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+23.90 Units / 184% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+14.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+10.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 49 games (+22.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+18.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 94 games (+14.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 42 away games (+3.05 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games at home (+10.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 61 games at home (+7.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 73-60 against the Run Line (+9.66 Units / 5.61% ROI).
- 62-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -7.01% ROI
- 64-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -4.44% ROI
- 64-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.57 Units / -3.83% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 66-68 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.06% ROI).
- 76-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.22 Units / 5.4% ROI
- 65-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -2.4% ROI
- 62-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -6.5% ROI
Guardians vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Guardians vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Guardians vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (53/163) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (38/252) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (355/811) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (40/120) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
13 of Ben Lively’s 35 breaking pitch strikeouts (37%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 99th Percentile.
Ben Lively has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Ben Lively has a strikeout rate of just 14% (16 SO in 116 PAs) this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (171/920) against Ben Lively this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Pirates are just 51-6 (.895) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 82-116 (.414) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Pirates are just 17-29 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Guardians are 23-26 (.469) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Guardians are 67-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Guardians are 12-23 (.343) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Guardians are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 52 extra-base hits out of 191 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters have 1,314 strikeouts in 5,158 PA’s (26%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates are batting just .155 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .502 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .280 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have just 2,257 strikeouts in 12,257 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates have allowed 9.83 runs per game (59/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.69.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,595 of 17,571 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 9.00 (54.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
The Pirates have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .219 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Guardians pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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