- The Pirates are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Pirates vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on Saturday, March 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Pirates are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 0-0 ATS.
Pirates vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -110 | -120 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -170 | U 8.5 -110 | +100 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bailey Falter has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eric Wagaman has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Valente Bellozo has hit the Strikeouts Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Eric Wagaman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.30 Units / 78% ROI)
- Valente Bellozo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Valente Bellozo has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 away games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 123 games (+5.40 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.55 Units / 62% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 80 games at home (+30.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 67 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Endy Rodriguez (PIT) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Valente Bellozo (MIA) | 3.5 -118 | 3.5 -110 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (658/1,563) in non-two strike counts since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (54/352) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (13/47) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (46/154) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2024 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Pirates were just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2024 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates are just 42-61 (.408) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season They play the Brewers (fourth best runs allowed) today.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2024 They play the Twins (11th best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 9-7 (.562) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .810.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in 2024 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 882 strikeouts in 3,531 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters struck out 417 times in 1,598 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in 2023 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .508 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Marlins are just 17-50 (.254) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .454.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers had 266 three-pitch strikeouts in the 2024 season — 3rd most in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 452.8 feet — — 4th shortest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Pirates pitchers have 267 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (769.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins have allowed 5.99 runs per game (497/83) at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
More MLB Reading:
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