The Pittsburgh Pirates (+225) visit Ed Smith Stadium to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-275) on Friday, March 22, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Sarasota, FL.
This season, the Pirates are 8-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 11-6 ATS.
Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +225 |
| Orioles | -275 |
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s matchup with 62.8% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 162 games (+33.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 152 games (+23.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.72 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+5.39 Units / 6% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Pirates are 9-11 against the Run Line (+0 Units / -10.93% ROI).
- 8-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / -17.8% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 10.37% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / -18.11% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Orioles are 11-6 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 20.01% ROI).
- 15-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 58.23% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 2.21% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / -9.64% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jared Jones is making his MLB debut today.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
88 of Corbin Burnes’ 200 strikeouts (44%) came on cutters in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes threw fastballs down 63% of the time (164/262) in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located his fastball inside 59% of the time (156/262) in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .200 (141-for-704) against Corbin Burnes in the 2023 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 131-158 (.453) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Pirates are just 23-37 (.383) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles were 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 135-8 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Orioles were 17-10 (.630) after a road loss in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 21% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Pirates hitters chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles were 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are 193-126 (.601) against the run line (12.5% ROI) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Orioles hitters drew 169 walks in 1,701 PA’s (10%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Orioles won 64% of their road games in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games in the 2023 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 2,021 times since the 2022 season — 4th most in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers won 42% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .198 against Orioles pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Shintaro Fujinami (Baltimore Orioles): Personal, Out
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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