- The Padres are -200 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Padres TV Channel: SNPT | PDTV | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-200) on Friday, May 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Pirates are 21-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 29-25 ATS.
Pirates vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-6, 3.68 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 5-2, 2.73 ERA
Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | O 7.5 -120 | +165 |
| Padres | -1.5 +115 | U 7.5 +100 | -200 |
Pirates vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+9.20 Units / 184% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+24.10 Units / 344% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in his last 15 games at home (+15.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.95 Units / 53% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+11.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 24-33 against the Run Line (-15.6 Units / -21.12% ROI).
- 21-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.5 Units / -18.28% ROI
- 22-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -20.7% ROI
- 32-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 12.57% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 29-25 against the Run Line (+0.55 Units / 0.78% ROI).
- 31-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 2.93% ROI
- 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -14.42% ROI
- 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 5.22% ROI
Padres vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Padres vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +100 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller allowed an OPS of .927 (274 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .298 (101-for-339) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OBP of .364 (272 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .314 (77-for-245) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .125 (120 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .213 (120 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .478 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .125 (120 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .079 (9-for-114) against Nick Pivetta with two-strikes this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .159 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 9-63 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Pirates are just 12-43 (.218) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 15-78 (.161) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Padres are 61-47 (.565) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Padres are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Padres were 66-8 (.892) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Pirates on 0% of their plate appearances this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 0%.. *
Pirates hitters have struck out in 35% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have put just 25% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .201 with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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