The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the New York Yankees (-165) on Wednesday, March 20, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Pirates are 8-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 6-12 ATS.
Pirates vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +140 |
| Yankees | -165 |
Pirates vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 56.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.20 Units / 54% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.10 Units / 210% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Estevan Florial has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+1.80 Units / 180% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 81 games at home (+3.80 Units / 3% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+3.68 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Pirates are 9-11 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -10.93% ROI).
- 8-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.07 Units / -17.8% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 10.37% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.97 Units / -18.11% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Yankees are 6-12 against the Run Line (-8.06 Units / -36.57% ROI).
- 6-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.34 Units / -35.19% ROI
- 9-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 6.87% ROI
- 7-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -14.76% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has averaged 88.6 MPH on fastballs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has an average spin rate of 2145.7 RPM on curveballs since the 2022 season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2529.5 — 10th Percentile.
Marco Gonzales’ lowest spin rate on changeups since the 2022 season is 1659.0 RPM — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1200.5
Marco Gonzales has averaged 79.5 MPH on changeups since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.3 — third Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver allowed a slugging percentage of .590 (161 Total Bases / 273 ABs) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .419 — first Percentile.
Luke Weaver allowed a slugging percentage of .601 (92 Total Bases / 153 ABs) versus the bottom of the order in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .381 — 0 Percentile.
Luke Weaver allowed an OPS of .969 (166 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .676 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .319 (87-for-273) against Luke Weaver in the 2023 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .251 — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 131-158 (.453) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Pirates are just 23-37 (.383) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Yankees are 19-17 (.528) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Yankees are 73-26 (.737) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Yankees are 108-28 (.794) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Yankees are 44-48 (.478) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .363.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 21% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Pirates hitters chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees batted just .227 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees hitters had a groundball batting average of just .212 in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Yankees hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,359 of their 5,973 plate appearances (23%) in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games in the 2023 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 2,021 times since the 2022 season — 4th most in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in 65% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents batted just .234 against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wandy Peralta (New York Yankees): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Calf, Out
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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