- The Guardians are -150 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Rays / Guardians TV Channel: FOX
The Tampa Bay Rays (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on Thursday, September 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Rays are 71-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 74-72 ATS.
Rays vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 8-6, 3.67 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 3-8, 5.23 ERA
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 -105 | +125 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +150 | U 7.5 -115 | -150 |
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+22.10 Units / 201% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.20 Units / 66% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+9.15 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 16 games (+21.50 Units / 134% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 37 of his last 48 games (+20.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+18.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Tyler Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+9.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 86 of their last 143 games (+24.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 137 games (+13.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 75 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+11.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 54 away games (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 84 of their last 146 games (+12.47 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 64 games at home (+9.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+9.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 75-71 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -1.75% ROI).
- 71-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -6.8% ROI
- 66-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -9.72% ROI
- 75-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 1.67% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 74-72 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 1.8% ROI).
- 84-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.47 Units / 6.6% ROI
- 67-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -6.51% ROI
- 70-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -2.28% ROI
Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pepiot (: Strikeouts | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .203 (142-for-698) against Ryan Pepiot since the 2022 season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (8-for-48) against Ryan Pepiot on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to August 21st — Bobby Miller has the longest active streak at 11.
Opponents are hitting just .269 (47-for-175) against Ryan Pepiot in non-two strike counts this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .330 — 96th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 11 innings — Logan Gilbert has the longest active streak at 21.
79% of Gavin Williams’ fastball strikeouts are elevatedsince last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 53% — 100th Percentile.
25 of Gavin Williams’ 64 strikeouts (39%) have come on curveballs this season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 92nd Percentile.
Gavin Williams has thrown fastballs up 71% of the time (274/383) with two-strikes since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 96th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are 126-5 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Rays are 29-109 (.210) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Rays are 60-4 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Rays are 35-63 (.357) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 75-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Guardians are 26-13 (.667) after a home win this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Guardians are 24-28 (.462) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Guardians are 65-2 (.970) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .356 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Rays are batting .260 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .657 (4,182 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .288 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of 1.179 (39 PA’s) at home this month (1 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,334 strikeouts in 12,617 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 274 of 4,193 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .226 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 0.00 (9.0 IP) at home this month (1 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.56.
Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
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