- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Rays / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSUN | MLBN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Sunday, September 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Rays are 72-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 75-73 ATS.
Rays vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 6-10, 4.39 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 11-9, 4.00 ERA
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -135 |
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+20.10 Units / 155% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- Taj Bradley has hit the Earned Runs Over in his last 8 games (+9.30 Units / 105% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 37 of his last 49 games (+19.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 49 games (+19.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+10.00 Units / 250% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Walks Over in his last 5 games at home (+9.65 Units / 193% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 76-72 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -2.09% ROI).
- 72-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.7 Units / -6.61% ROI
- 66-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.75 Units / -10.94% ROI
- 77-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.7 Units / 2.87% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 75-73 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 2.05% ROI).
- 85-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.07 Units / 6.3% ROI
- 67-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -7.77% ROI
- 72-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.65 Units / -1.02% ROI
Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taj Bradley has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to August 12nd — Bobby Miller has the longest active streak at 11.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (30/144) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .173 (18-for-104) against Taj Bradley when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .260 — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (65/180) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
13 of Ben Lively’s 37 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Ben Lively has averaged 90.1 MPH on fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — third Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .581 (104 Total Bases / 179 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: .424 — second Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (59 Total Bases / 99 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .428 — second Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are 128-5 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Rays are 60-4 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Rays are 12-121 (.090) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Rays are 50-92 (.352) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 66-2 (.971) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Guardians are 76-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Guardians are just 2-56 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Guardians are 72-2 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 322 strikeouts in 1,297 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .359 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .292 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,244 of 17,501 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .202 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians have allowed 0.88 runs per game (131/149) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .230 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
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