- The Rays are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Rays vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rays / Red Sox TV Channel: FSUN | NESN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Monday, June 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Rays are 35-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 33-33 ATS.
Rays vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 5-3, 4.99 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 2-1, 3.92 ERA
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -110 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -110 | -115 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jake Mangum has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+11.10 Units / 159% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.60 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+19.50 Units / 195% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+12.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games at home (+9.10 Units / 97% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 52% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+5.71 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+4.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 30 games (+4.75 Units / 13% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 31-34 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -3.76% ROI).
- 35-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.78 Units / 2.17% ROI
- 24-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.2 Units / -25.12% ROI
- 38-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.2 Units / 17.27% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 33-33 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 2.55% ROI).
- 32-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.76 Units / -13.1% ROI
- 32-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.42 Units / -7.33% ROI
- 34-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -1.36% ROI
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Baz has a strike rate of 72% (227/313) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed a slugging percentage of .526 (51 Total Bases / 97 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — eighth Percentile.
Shane Baz allowed a BABIP of .167 vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 99th Percentile.
Shane Baz has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (141/313) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 56% (268/477) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (8/40) against Brayan Bello in late innings since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 54% (266/497) on sliders in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Brayan Bello walked 9% of batters in the 2024 season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 11th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 4-24 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Rays are 16-151 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rays are 36-139 (.206) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Rays are 87-25 (.777) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 4-168 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Red Sox are just 7-81 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays batted just .212 with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Rays hitters are slugging .551 versus relief pitchers over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .363.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .283 in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters had an OBP of just .299 (4,637 PA’s) against RHP in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox are batting .276 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 4% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 63 double plays in 407 opportunities (15%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Rays pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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